Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Polling materials in Myanmar
The country's junta is holding a staggered vote over the next month.

The nation is holding an election in a electoral process broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups banned, numerous figures jailed and as much as half of the country unable to participate because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The military government is holding a staggered election nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the costly deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the rights of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker TĂĽrk said.

Over two hundred people have been charged for interfering with or opposing the polls under a recently enacted legislation which carries severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a film promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr TĂĽrk said in a statement, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats urging people to boycott the polls.

The military has been engaged on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year following relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it challenging to predict a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will contest only at the local levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while the rest are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the junta can adjust tactics if the results in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has urged political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not intended for the international community," a military representative told a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "the path to democracy".

Tonya Patterson
Tonya Patterson

A seasoned financial analyst specializing in UK venture capital, with over a decade of experience in startup investments and market forecasting.