Amid a golden sunset in Memphis in May, Sharon Wilson directed a heat-sensing device at a large AI hub to reveal a planetary threat hidden from plain view. Lacking emissions regulations, the natural gas generators fueling one of the world’s biggest AI supercomputers were releasing harmful gases into the Tennessee sky.
“I was completely stunned,” stated the campaigner, who calculates the facility was releasing more planet-heating gas than a large power plant. “An absolutely staggering level of contamination.”
Around the same time, the resulting chatbot was spreading across news feeds, promoting misinformation and generating inaccurate statements. Critics have pointed to AI-created pictures of offensive characters as an case of what methane was being consumed to produce. “How does this contribute positively?”
Wilson is not alone in voicing this concern. Researchers are monitoring the AI boom with apprehension as it contaminates the planet with carbon and the online sphere with risks ranging from medical myths to deepfake pornography.
Certain researchers fear datacentres may derail the shift to a low-carbon future, adding an unnecessary hurdle to the difficult goal of preventing the planet from heating beyond critical thresholds. Others are sanguine about the energy costs, arguing they are relatively small not just to traditional heavy industries, but also to the technology’s capacity to drive progress.
The Soaring Energy Hunger
When an energy professor ran models for an global energy body, she spent minimal effort worrying about the carbon cost of computers. Transport, agriculture and buildings were among the complex challenges consuming the carbon budget.
But in a specific country, the power needs of data processing has reached levels that are increasingly alarming. Datacentres consume one-fifth of the country’s electricity and are projected to devour nearly one-third within a few years. The quick proliferation of these server farms has outpaced the electricity grid's capacity, leading to restrictions on new grid connections.
“The trajectory of massive, rapid expansion is what is so alarming,” said Daly. “It is uncertain whether this is a real outlier or a precursor of what’s to come. But it’s definitely a lesson to heed.”
Globally, datacentres consume a small fraction of the world’s electricity but may soon demand much more. Their portion of electricity demand in major economies is expected to increase significantly by 2035. Some demand is being met through long-term agreements to buy renewable power, while some tech firms have made agreements to use atomic power.
But for the near future, coal and gas are set to dominate supply. In some regions, datacentres are clustered in areas reliant on polluting power generation. In others, political support has framed them as justification for burning more coal. “The assumption that the lower cost of renewables alone will drive decarbonisation – that is insufficient,” said Daly. “Because if there’s a massive driver of energy demand that wants to grow, it will exploit these stranded fossil fuel assets.”
Assessing the Carbon Cost of a Query
Does using chatbots to draft emails harm the planet? Tech companies have resisted pressure to provide transparent metrics on their AI energy footprints, but popular guesstimates hover around a small amount of energy for a simple text query, growing substantially for more complex tasks. One CEO recently asserted a typical AI query uses as little energy as running a lightbulb for a couple of minutes.
These figures are negligible compared to activities such as air travel, eating meat, or driving a car. However, concerned voices worry about the massive volume of the technology – with hundreds of millions of weekly users – and the eagerness with which companies have shoved it into every aspect of digital life. The rise of automated assistants is expected to add to the background hum.
“The issue that troubles me is that we’re rolling out this technology in such a way that we lack a clear understanding of the energy use,” said a climate lead at an AI company. “The current approach is on the assumption that it’s not a problem – or that if it is a problem it will somehow be solved – instead of proactively addressing it.”
The Possible for Positive Impact
What if AI could offset its energy debts by cutting greenhouse gases in other parts of the economy? That is the thesis put forward in several reports, which argued existing AI applications could cut emissions by far more than datacentres produced. Researchers have modelled scenarios in which AI would help to manage renewable energy, identify alternative proteins, improve energy storage tech and nudge people toward climate-friendly choices.
“AI can speed up the deployment of those clean technologies by basically moving them faster along the curve of progress and implementation,” said a policy fellow involved in the research.
The potential climate benefits carry significant caveats – greater efficiency can lead to more use, and secondary impacts may undercut the gains. But instances already exist. Some companies report AI has helped optimize thermal management in datacentres by a significant percentage. Energy firms say AI has improved wind turbine maintenance and performance, increasing operational efficiency. Solar farm operators have reduced downtime by using AI to detect faults.
Because other sectors are so polluting, researchers say, AI would only need to cut their emissions by a tiny percentage to cover the carbon cost of its computing. “For energy generation we are already seeing the results,” said one researcher. “But other sectors are not there yet.”
The Flip Side: Facilitating Fossil Fuels
Environmentalists are not the only ones to have noticed AI’s transformative potential. The fossil fuel industry is also a significant user. Some former tech employees have expressed concern over their companies' work for oil and gas clients, arguing it enables more emissions than the tech sector produces itself. Partnerships have been announced with major oil companies, with the potential to expand production and streamline exploration.
Industry estimates suggest AI could boost technically recoverable oil and gas reserves and cut project costs. Industry leaders have stated that AI is embedded “in everything” and has increased productivity, leading to more drilling activity. The oil and gas industry also argues AI can cut its emissions per barrel, for instance by analysing data to spot methane leaks. But critics say there is a gap between data analysis and real-world changes.
“This is being utilized as an excuse to delay action,” said one campaigner. “Monitoring methane from space is not preventing methane.”
Perhaps even more concerning than the expansion of fossil fuel supply is the effect on consumption. Generative AI has been shown to create extremely persuasive advertisements, and the ease of production slashes the cost of promoting buying. The marketing industry is preparing for AI agents that could handle purchases on a customer’s behalf.
“The prevailing story is really focused on this misleading contrast between the energy used to run the technology and the positive use cases,” said a campaigner. “But it is risky to omit the negative use cases.”
Appeals for Oversight and Control
A number of experts are calling to slow down, at least until better rules are in place. International bodies and coalitions of environmental groups have called for a stop on new datacentre development, citing damaging environmental impacts. Some national regulators have imposed conditions, requiring that a large majority of a datacentre’s power must eventually come from new renewable projects.
Different voices have called to push the sector to do good. A few countries have started to include AI in climate legislation, obliging governments to promote digitalisation that aids decarbonisation. There have also been suggestions to create a fund to generate resources needed for climate action.
Some campaigners are pushing for upcoming regulations to classify certain high-emission applications of AI as concerning. They also want investors to consider indirect climate impacts when evaluating companies.
In response to concerns, some AI companies have stated they give considerable thought to the best use of computing power, support sustainability goals, and believe AI will be instrumental in tackling climate change. Other tech firms argue the energy transition is complex and requires a principled manner, with technology playing an important role in helping industries decarbonize.
One researcher concluded that, rather than panic, people should pressure companies to make tools that are frugal by design.
“Maybe I’m a little naive, but I still believe that AI can have a positive impact in terms of fighting the climate crisis – creating the next generation of batteries, tracking deforestation, predicting hurricanes,” she said. “Numerous good things for which we can be using it – and instead we’re generating online platforms filled with frivolous outputs while datacentres are getting powered by fossil fuel plants.”
