A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
